Economic recession dating
For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at:https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECMThe second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e.For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough.For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below.In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period.The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data.The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough.We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods.
The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee.
A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.